SNDK Drops 21% in Three Weeks. Here's What Analysts Say

Sandisk (SNDK) has plunged 21.4% since September 22, falling from $1,887 to $1,482 as fears over Chinese memory-chip competition intensify. But historical trading data reveals something interesting: SNDK has suffered multiple corrections exceeding 20% before, even during its extraordinary rally.

The latest selloff follows Chinese chipmaker CXMT's announcement of advances in DRAM technology, raising concerns about future memory supply and pricing.

However, Sandisk primarily produces NAND flash, not DRAM, making the immediate competitive threat less direct.

Jefferies analysts have questioned whether CXMT's technology can achieve commercial viability, while Morgan Stanley cautions that the memory industry remains cyclical despite booming AI demand.

Industry fundamentals also tell a different story.

TrendForce forecasts NAND flash contract prices will rise another 15%–20% in the fourth quarter, supported by AI infrastructure demand.

Sandisk's latest reported quarterly revenue surged 51% sequentially to $8.97 billion, with gross margins reaching 84.6%.

What does history suggest?

An OQLIV analysis of SNDK's daily trading data identified several previous corrections:

November–December 2025: −31.3%

February 2026: −22.1%

March 2026: −25.9%

September–October 2026: −21.4%

The earnings pattern is also revealing.

SNDK gained during the five trading sessions immediately preceding all six previous earnings announcements examined. The stock subsequently gained over the next five sessions in four of those six cases.

Meanwhile, SNDK recorded positive five-session returns following all six TSMC earnings announcements examined, although the small sample does not establish causation.

BOTTOM LINE: SNDK's 21% correction is significant, but historically not unusual for the stock.

The bigger question is whether this represents another volatile pullback in a strong memory cycle—or the beginning of a repricing of unusually high profitability expectations.